With more disappointing economic news out of Japan and Germany, the United States continues to look like an island of prosperity in an ocean of slow global growth.
Expectations are high as the US economy kicks into gear and the Federal Reserve starts to make plans for liftoff. Meanwhile, falling oil prices present a potential speed bump on the runway.
A shrinking deficit over the last four years has very likely restricted the supply of US debt, affecting interest rates in a way that many failed to predict. The war against ISIS potentially changes this situation.
Markets rallied yesterday after the release of “dovish” Fed minutes, however weak data out of Germany this morning appears to have quelled the momentum.
While the labor market is certainly improving, inflation expectations are still depressed thanks to a rallying dollar and stagnant wage growth. Meanwhile, emerging markets continue to borrow at record low interest rates as Europeans hoard savings.
As the Chinese government continues to “rebalance” their economy towards domestic consumption and investors demonstrate nervousness over a credit bubble, emerging Asian equities appear to offer attractive valuations.
Diverging growth and monetary policy dynamics lowers the likelihood of overheating and could carry the current global expansion into becoming one of the largest on record.
Economic recovery remains slower in Europe than in the U.S., causing renewed discussion around the European Central Bank’s options to try and jumpstart the Eurozone economy.
As the Eurozone’s economic recovery stutters to a halt, investors are turning to the United States for growth.
Just in time to follow up on yesterday’s post regarding economic participation and the structural/cyclical debate in macroeconomics, a new report from the White House says about 33% of the decline in the labor-force participation rate is due to structural factors — “the factors beyond aging and cyclicality.” The Washington Post has two theories to […]